Beware the BBQ effect!

Equities Forum 08/11/2017  

After making a lot of money, people get emotional and in what I term ‘the BBQ effect’ they want to share these feelings – this causes those who have missed out to be jealous. Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Trump should reappoint Yellen. Also: credit spreads are tight, Tesla, Laffer’s napkin and other stuff.

Bond Vigilantes 18/10/2017  

The Fed Chair choice should be obvious for Trump.  Yellen all the way.  I don’t understand why he would choose Taylor. President Trump is likely to announce his choice for… Read more »

Is it time for the Bank of England to target nominal GDP?

Bond Vigilantes 22/09/2017  

In December 2012, the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech entitled “Guidance” to the CFA Society of Toronto. Less than two weeks earlier, the… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Mexico: a primer. Elections, inflation, the Bank of Mexico, NAFTA and gasoline

Bond Vigilantes 18/09/2017  

I’m just back from a fascinating research trip to Mexico City, to meet with policymakers, bankers, politicians, analysts, pension funds and regulators. Like many emerging market economies, the Mexican economy… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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US households: rarely had it so good?

Episode 01/09/2017  

With Korean missile launches, Trump’s tweets, Hurricane Harvey, NAFTA negotiations and Brexit battles, journalists have plenty to keep themselves busy. Of course, some of today’s headline-grabbing events might bring profound… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Jackson Hole-lotta nothin’

Episode 29/08/2017  

Each year at Jackson Hole policy makers and economists around the world meet to discuss the issues of the day. Attention on policy makers has intensified to extremes since the… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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BVTV: Time for a check-up of the US healthcare sector

Bond Vigilantes 22/08/2017  

Heated debates about proposals to repeal and replace Obamacare, generic pharmaceuticals feeling the pain of pressures on drug prices and lingering event risk around potential mergers and acquisitions – there… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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This week on BVTV: “high yield” in name only

Bond Vigilantes 21/08/2017  

James Tomlins, M&G fund manager, helps manage over £5bn in high yield assets. This week on BVTV I ask him: 1) What is your outlook for global high yield default… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Are debt markets and rating agencies giving M&A too much credit?

Bond Vigilantes 08/08/2017  

Last week, International TV network operator Discovery Communications announced the US$15bn acquisition of Scripps Networks. Scripps owns TV networks focused on food, home and travel, so it fits with the… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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A problem with U.S. average hourly earnings, and why it may be understating the true picture

Bond Vigilantes 16/05/2017  

The last time the US had an unemployment rate below 5% and inflation expectations around 2%, the Fed funds rate was above 5% and had been aggressively hiked in the… Read more »