‘Diversified Growth funds’ deliver most divergent returns since the financial crisis

Episode 25/01/2017  

In 2015, Tony discussed the growing popularity of ‘Diversified Growth Funds’ (DGFs). DGFs typically seek to generate returns comparable to the stock market but with lower volatility. They have been… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Rational exuberance? Animal spirits, Robert Shiller, and Donald Trump

Episode 20/01/2017  

We are often asked by investors whether looking for ‘episodes’ as investment opportunities can be dangerous. After all, if investors are panicking, can’t this become self-fulfilling? Indeed it can and… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Why did Sterling go up yesterday? The dangers of efficient markets thinking

Episode 18/01/2017  

Yesterday the UK Prime Minister Theresa May gave a speech at Lancaster House which outlined potential objectives for the country’s Brexit negotiations. In it, she presented a Brexit plan that… Read more »

2016: The Start of Something Bigger?

Episode 06/01/2017  

I wrote twice last year on how 2016 could mark a pivotal moment for investors: both in terms of the market treatment of risk, and in the macro and policy-making… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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2016: Not more surprising, just a different type of surprise

Episode 22/12/2016  

Some surprises feel more surprising than others. When events have binary outcomes, like an election result, you can instantly and clearly compare what you believed beforehand to what actually happened…. Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Four reasons why we need more active asset allocation

Episode 03/01/2017  

There were a couple of pieces written in the media in 2016 suggesting that the year represented a tipping point in the shift from active to passive management, both in… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Thoughts on the US Rate Rise

Episode 15/12/2016  

Markets remain obsessed with relatively minor changes in US official interest rates expectations. The FOMC revealed that at least three interest rate increases next year look reasonable, slightly higher than… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Midwinter motivations: “Santa Claus rallies”, Calendar year returns, and the “January effect”

Episode 14/12/2016  

Could it be that professional investors are chasing year end equity returns to flatter calendar year performance? And does this set us up for a weaker January as those same… Read more »

Is the bond sell-off overdone, and how do we define a “high pressure economy” anyway?

Episode 09/12/2016  

There have been many suggestions  that the sell-off in government bonds in the US was overdone. The argument was that weakness was a result of Trump’s victory, but that it… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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The Renzi Referendum: Italian surrealism in a post-truth world

Episode 05/12/2016  

It seems apposite that Matteo Renzi’s term as Italian Prime minister should end in this way. For investors, this referendum was a surreal distraction, focusing on the nuance of domestic… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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