The UK’s ONS admits an error again. Is ‘The Wedge’ poised to go even higher?

Bond Vigilantes 19/01/2018  

The Financial Times today ran a story that the ONS has admitted errors in its measurement of the telecoms sector. It seems that the ONS has effectively been focussed on… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Is the reflation trade back on?

Equities Forum 19/10/2017  

The reflation trade has regained traction in recent weeks with global bond yields rising and renewed discussions in the US on tax and regulatory reform, promising a fiscal boost. Added… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Mexico: a primer. Elections, inflation, the Bank of Mexico, NAFTA and gasoline

Bond Vigilantes 18/09/2017  

I’m just back from a fascinating research trip to Mexico City, to meet with policymakers, bankers, politicians, analysts, pension funds and regulators. Like many emerging market economies, the Mexican economy… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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The 2nd largest bailout in British history and its economic effects

Bond Vigilantes 06/09/2017  

The Slavery Abolition Act of 1833 formally freed 800,000 Africans who were then the legal property of Britain’s slave owners. What is less well known is that the same act… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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From tusk to tail

Equities Forum 16/05/2017  

For centuries, the parable of “The Blind Men and the Elephant”* has been used to illustrate how overemphasising a specific part of a complex situation can lead to the wrong… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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CPI wHat?

Bond Vigilantes 23/02/2017  

In the UK, as of next month the official measure of consumer prices will become CPIH, with the H standing for housing.  As at today, the only difference between CPI… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Five observations about Inflation

Bond Vigilantes 17/02/2017  

January and February 2016 saw oil prices reach their lows ($34.25 Brent January 20th and $26.21 WTI, February 11th), so this week’s inflation numbers will see some high year-on-year oil price base effects… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Three things to watch as the Czech National Bank removes its FX floor later this year

Bond Vigilantes 15/02/2017  

For over 3 years, the Czech National Bank (CNB) has maintained the Czech Koruna (CZK) exchange rate close to 27 CZK to the Euro (EUR), essentially using its currency –as… Read more »

Where is UK growth going to come from? Our take on the IFS Green Budget

Bond Vigilantes 14/02/2017  

The IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) Green Budget hit the headlines last week with its forecast that, over the course of this parliament, the UK tax burden is set to… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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It’s Halloween. Here are some scary charts.

Bond Vigilantes 31/10/2016  

The financial world is a scary place. Debt, disinflation and deteriorating growth have plagued investors over the past year, plunging bond yields into negative territory in a number of countries… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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