China: A tale of two economies – will investors find good fortune in the Year of the Dog?

Equities Forum 02/03/2018  

China was one of the best performing emerging markets last year as the stockmarket soared. This result probably surprised many investors who are more familiar with gloomy warnings about the… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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The Venezuelan cash crunch: exporting passports as a palliative?

Bond Vigilantes 23/01/2018  

Venezuela’s cash flow crisis has been well covered. The recent default on its sovereign debt and likely default on the debt issued by its state-owned company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA… Read more »

Emerging markets debt: 2017 post-mortem and 2018 outlook

Bond Vigilantes 03/01/2018  

Emerging markets debt posted strong returns in 2017, driven by the stabilisation of fundamentals, ongoing global and EM economic recovery, a small rebound in commodity prices and a geopolitical environment… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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The hunt for emerging market yield is killing covenants

Bond Vigilantes 24/10/2017  

Would you buy a 7-year unsecured bond at 6% yield from a B1/B+ rated Brazilian airline (first time issuer) with well-below-standard credit covenant protection for investors? Many did last week…. Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Mexico: a primer. Elections, inflation, the Bank of Mexico, NAFTA and gasoline

Bond Vigilantes 18/09/2017  

I’m just back from a fascinating research trip to Mexico City, to meet with policymakers, bankers, politicians, analysts, pension funds and regulators. Like many emerging market economies, the Mexican economy… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Caribbean bonds: forecasting the weather, tail risks and spreads

Bond Vigilantes 13/09/2017  

First of all, our thoughts are with those impacted by Hurricane Irma and other recent weather-related disasters. Beyond the human tragedy and economic costs, these are typically low-probability, but potentially… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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State-owned corporate bonds: there is no such thing as an implicit guarantee

Bond Vigilantes 08/06/2017  

A couple of weeks ago, state-owned International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA) shocked its bondholders by announcing a surprise restructuring. The bank’s capital ratio turned negative at year-end 2016 due to… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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M&G Panoramic Outlook: Emerging market corporate bonds – falling default rates and high yields. Too good to be true?

Bond Vigilantes 10/05/2017  

There are a lot of misconceptions about defaults in emerging market (EM) debt. Too often, EM corporates are either considered ‘serial defaulters’ compared with their developed market peers, or seen… Read more »

Three of our most popular charts

Bond Vigilantes 14/03/2017  

We often use Twitter to share the charts that we think are interesting, but probably don’t warrant the extra analysis of a blog. With this in mind, I’ve had a… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Research trip: Mexico & Trump – a key call in emerging markets

Bond Vigilantes 26/01/2017  

President Trump’s anti-Mexico rhetoric has made Mexican assets one of the key calls in emerging market debt. I have just returned from a research trip to Mexico where I met… Read more »