Carillion case study: All was not what it seemed

Bond Vigilantes 16/02/2018  

In its 2016 Annual Report entitled ‘making tomorrow a better place’, Carillion claimed they had ‘a good platform from which to develop the business in 2017’. Less than ten months… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Caribbean bonds: forecasting the weather, tail risks and spreads

Bond Vigilantes 13/09/2017  

First of all, our thoughts are with those impacted by Hurricane Irma and other recent weather-related disasters. Beyond the human tragedy and economic costs, these are typically low-probability, but potentially… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Economic surprise indices highlight bulls in the US and bears in Europe

Bond Vigilantes 05/09/2017  

Another month has drawn to an end, which presents a good opportunity to take stock and review recent events and Bloomberg’s surprise monitors – true to their name – have… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Jackson Hole-lotta nothin’

Episode 29/08/2017  

Each year at Jackson Hole policy makers and economists around the world meet to discuss the issues of the day. Attention on policy makers has intensified to extremes since the… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Argentina’s century bond: much ado about nothing

Bond Vigilantes 23/06/2017  

Argentina’s recently issued century bond deal was unexpected in terms of timing and maturity. Century bonds in EM are rare (we think the table below is pretty exhaustive) and they… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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BVTV: Relief rally gets new legs on Macron victory

Bond Vigilantes 08/05/2017  

EU officials are breathing their latest sigh of relief this morning, after French voters opted for centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron over far-right rival Marine Le Pen in yesterday’s second round… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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The Israeli Shekel: Flying under the radar

Bond Vigilantes 03/05/2017  

Though the recent US Treasury report did not name any country as a currency manipulator (see more details on this in Mario’s blog), the monitoring list centres on larger economies… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Our demographic challenges require new economic thinking

Bond Vigilantes 07/02/2017  

Capital markets have experienced a major shift in sentiment over the course of the last couple of months. Fears over secular stagnation and deflation have dissipated, and investors have been… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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A dozen things I’m finding interesting in bond markets. Includes weasels.

Bond Vigilantes 31/01/2017  

On the face of it, long term US Treasury yields are looking fair value, having traded on the dear side since the middle of 2014.  Below is a chart you… Read more »

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.


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Research trip: Mexico & Trump – a key call in emerging markets

Bond Vigilantes 26/01/2017  

President Trump’s anti-Mexico rhetoric has made Mexican assets one of the key calls in emerging market debt. I have just returned from a research trip to Mexico where I met… Read more »